Summary: Industry analysis projects global wafer capacity will remain tight through 2026, with mature node shortages expected to persist despite aggressive expansion plans.
2026 Capacity Outlook
Despite record capital expenditure by leading foundries, global wafer capacity is projected to remain tight through 2026, particularly for mature process nodes serving automotive and industrial applications. The supply-demand gap for 28nm and above nodes is expected to persist.
Key factors include: sustained demand from EV and industrial automation sectors; longer-than-expected equipment lead times; and concentration of advanced node capacity among a limited number of players.
For chip designers and OEMs, this outlook suggests continued need for supply chain diversification and strategic capacity reservation agreements with foundry partners.
